Limiting greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience can improve the everyday lives and experiences of South Africans. (Photo by Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images)
Reducing incomes, undermining food and water security and raising the cost of living — this is the threat that climate change poses to South Africans, a new report has warned.
“Climate impacts are already clear in the country,” said the Climate Change Impacts in South Africa report, produced by a team of leading climate researchers at the University of Cape Town. “These impacts will worsen as the global temperature rises, although the extent of the impacts depends greatly on future emissions.”
Even in scenarios where global warming is limited to 2°C, heatwaves are projected to become hotter and more frequent, raising the risk of deadly heat stress in South Africa.
The report illustrated how heatwaves make working outdoors more difficult and dangerous, with global warming of 3°C reducing work capacity by 30% to 50%. Land is less suitable for crops and livestock suffer.
Similarly, severe droughts will happen more frequently, the authors said. The severe drought from 2015 to 2017 led to a drinking water crisis in the Cape Town area. More severe drought, more often will lead to species richness declines in biodiversity hotspots, with the extinction rate in the fynbos biome rising by up to 25%.
While there is an overall drying trend across the country, in the country’s eastern half heavy rainfall is projected to increase, making the region more prone to flooding. Tropical cyclones, although not necessarily more frequent, may become more intense, the report said.
Vital assets
Many South Africans lack access to basic provisions and services, with those affected concentrated disproportionately in low-income areas. More than half the population lives below the upper-bound poverty line, meaning household income cannot cover both food and basic living costs.
At least a third of South Africans aged 16 to 64 are unemployed, the highest rate in any G20 country, the report said. “About 20% of the population is food insecure, with poor nutrition putting extra strain on overcrowded and under-resourced hospitals. Blackouts are a daily experience for millions, as are poor transport links and creaking infrastructure.”
Amid these problems, agriculture and biodiversity are key. The country’s produce includes livestock, sugar cane, maize, citrus, wine and grapes, while its natural landscapes are home to a world-famous diversity of plant and animal life. South Africa hosts three of the world’s 36 biodiversity hotspots.
In 2022, more than 5.7 million tourists visited South Africa, many attracted by its scenery and biodiversity. Crop and livestock farming provide food and livelihoods for many South Africans and, alongside nature tourism, contribute to the economy, the authors said.
Agricultural land covers about 80% of South Africa’s total area. Commercial farms account for three-quarters of agricultural land, producing fruit, wine, vegetables, cereals, wool and meat for the domestic and international markets. Additionally, about two to three million smallholder farmers produce food for their households or for limited sale.
The agricultural sector, including fishing, forestry, hunting and farming, accounted for 10% of export earnings and contributed 2.5% to GDP in 2021-22. It is also a big employer, accounting for 21% of total employment.
“Farm stays, wine-tasting and other agritourism activities generate additional income for farmers and seasonal workers, while biodiversity tourism is a growing contributor to the economy,” said the report, noting how in 2017 alone, the Kruger National Park contributed R2.6 billion to GDP and supported more than 10 000 jobs.
Cascading effects
These “vital assets” are at risk, as the climate crisis has cascading effects on people’s lives. “As well as adding to the existing pressures on public services and infrastructure, climate change threatens the lives and livelihoods of South Africans through its effect on agriculture, nature and nature tourism,” the report noted.
“Extreme heat is making land less suitable for crops and posing a major threat to livestock. With crop-growing concentrated in just 12% of the country’s land area, lower production in these vital areas threatens food security and export earnings.”
For families and farming households, any extreme weather event that reduces production such as a flood or a drought is likely to reduce job security and income. Extreme weather threatens the plants and animals that attract tourism as well and directly damages infrastructure at nature reserves, adventure destinations and parks. Temperature rise by 2050 is projected to decrease visitors to South Africa’s national parks by 4%, with the Kruger most affected.
Building resilience
Limiting greenhouse gas emissions and building resilience can improve the everyday lives and experiences of South Africans, said the report.
“Small-scale farmers have long been aware of the threat that climate change poses to their lives and livelihoods, just as commercial farmers are tuned in to the impacts of changing weather patterns on their farms’ productivity. As such, adaptation strategies include enhancing soil carbon, planting new crop varieties and using Indigenous practices to harvest rainwater. “
Although adapting to the effects of climate change has, so far, been sufficient to stave off the worst of it, limits to adaptation may be soon reached under projected climate change scenarios, according to the report. Structural barriers, such as access to finance, insurance and infrastructure, mean that small-scale farmers are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than commercial outfits.
Alongside “slow-moving” state-led land and agrarian reform programmes, initiatives to enhance ecological infrastructure and adapt to climate change in nature-smart ways offer a means to address climate change, inequality, poverty and infrastructure failures simultaneously, according to the report.
The severity of future climate change ultimately depends on the level to which global emissions are reduced. “Much of the country’s economic future hinges on the speed with which investments in its solar and wind resources can replace coal and provide affordable and reliable electricity,” the report noted.
Meanwhile, South Africa has led calls in international climate negotiations for a just transition to elevate concerns about social justice and commit high-income countries to financing decarbonisation and loss and damage in middle and low-income countries, the report said. It noted how South Africa has adopted a net zero target by 2050 in its low-emission development strategy, contingent on climate finance.